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05.02 Research a neighborhood and make only statements you can prove

05.02

Research a neighborhood and make only statements you can prove

Define a neighborhood boundary, pull the same MLS and public numbers every period, and write market statements with their source, period and sample size.

45 minFramework and examplesChecked 2026-10-20

Video walkthrough

Coming soonNeighborhood numbers you can stand behind
It will cover
  1. Draw the boundary once and never change it quietly
  2. The seven MLS numbers to pull every quarter
  3. Public data for context: Census tenure and FHFA price index
  4. Citing your source and period the way MLS policy expects
  5. Small numbers: when a median misleads and what to say instead
This chapter is complete without it. Every step is written out on this page.

What you're building

A one-page fact sheet for one neighborhood: a fixed boundary, seven MLS numbers for this period and the same period last year, two public context figures, exact citation lines, and a short list of statements you are allowed to make.

Why it matters

Homeowners can tell when a market update is generic. Street-level numbers make your Community Update worth opening. They also carry risk: NAR's MLS policy says advertising based on MLS data must disclose the source and the period, and the NAR Code requires a true picture in advertising. A fact sheet with sources baked in keeps every later piece honest.

What you need

  • MLS access with statistics or a search you can export
  • The neighborhood you chose in the previous chapter
  • A spreadsheet
  • Your MLS's own rules on publishing statistics (some MLSs add requirements)

Time and cost

Time
45 minutes for the first neighborhood, 20 minutes per refresh
Cost
$0

All sources named here are free; your MLS dues are already paid.

Step by step

  1. Fix the boundary and property type

    Use a boundary the MLS can reproduce: a subdivision name, an MLS area code, or a drawn map shape saved as a search. Pick one property type (for example single-family detached). Write both at the top of the fact sheet. Changing either later makes period-to-period comparisons false.

    Check: Running your saved search twice returns the same closed sales.

  2. Pull the seven MLS numbers for two matching periods

    1. Closed sales count
    2. Median closed price
    3. Median days on market
    4. Median closed price as % of original list price
    5. New listings in the period
    6. Active listings on the last day
    7. Expired or withdrawn in the period

    Pull this quarter and the same quarter last year. Compare like with like: Q3 to Q3, not Q3 to Q2, because seasons change the numbers.

    Check: Your sheet has 14 numbers (7 for each period) and the date you pulled them.

  3. Add public context figures

    From the Census Bureau's ACS 5-year table B25039, take the median year owner-occupants moved in for your neighborhood's tract, with its margin of error. From the FHFA House Price Index, take the latest ZIP-level annual change if your ZIP is published. Both are U.S. government data. For metro context, Redfin's Data Center publishes free downloads; cite Redfin as the source and check its terms.

    Check: Each public figure has a source line with table or release name.

  4. Write the citation lines

    NAR's Handbook on Multiple Listing Policy says advertising based on MLS data must clearly disclose the source and the period. A common format is: "Based on information from [MLS name] for the period [start] through [end]." Many brokerages also add that not all properties were listed or sold by them. Copy the wording your MLS prefers if it publishes one.

    Check: Your fact sheet has a citation line for every source.

  5. Write statements you can prove, and flag small samples

    Write two or three plain statements using counts and periods. When a period has fewer than 10 sales, show the individual sales (price, beds, days on market) instead of leaning on a median, and avoid percentage changes; one unusual sale can move a median a lot.

    Check: Every statement includes a number, a period and a source you could show on request.

What success looks like

  • A fact sheet with fixed boundary and property type
  • Two matching periods of the seven MLS numbers
  • Citation lines for MLS and public sources
  • Statements that a skeptical neighbor could verify

Copyable templates

textNeighborhood fact sheet

Harbor Pines, Seaside and every number here are fictional.

NEIGHBORHOOD FACT SHEET (fictional example)

Neighborhood:     Harbor Pines, Seaside (boundary: MLS subdivision "Harbor Pines", 412 parcels)
Period:           2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 (Q3 2026)  | Comparison: 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30
Pulled on:        2026-10-03 by Dana Reyes

FROM THE MLS (same boundary, same property types: single-family detached)
  Closed sales:                    9         (Q3 2025: 12)
  Median closed price:             $612,000  (Q3 2025: $589,000)   [n < 10: also list each sale]
  Median days on market:           21        (Q3 2025: 18)
  Closed price / original list:    98.4% median
  New listings in period:          11
  Active listings on 2026-09-30:   6
  Expired or withdrawn in period:  2

FROM PUBLIC SOURCES
  Owner-occupied median year moved in (ACS 2019-2023 5-year, tract 0000.00): 2009 (+/- 4 years)
  FHFA HPI, ZIP 00000, annual: use the latest published year-over-year change, cite the release

CITATION LINES (copy exactly onto anything you publish)
  "Based on information from Seaside Regional MLS for the period 07/01/2026 through 09/30/2026,
   single-family homes in the Harbor Pines subdivision. Not all properties were listed or sold by Coastal Key Realty."
  "U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023 5-year estimates, table B25039."

STATEMENTS I CAN MAKE
  "9 single-family homes closed in Harbor Pines between July and September 2026, versus 12 in the same months of 2025."
STATEMENTS I CANNOT MAKE
  "Prices are up 4%!" (n = 9; median movement at this size is noise; say the two medians and the counts instead)
  "Homes sell in 3 weeks" (that is a median for one quarter, not a promise)

Try it

Turning a claim into a provable statement (fictional numbers)
Tempting claimProblemProvable statement
Prices up 4% this year!9 sales: medians swing; no period or sourceMedian closed price was $612,000 for 9 sales in Q3 2026, versus $589,000 for 12 sales in Q3 2025 (Seaside Regional MLS).
Homes sell in 3 weeksSounds like a promiseMedian days on market in Q3 2026 was 21.
Best neighborhood in SeasideOpinion presented as fact11 homes were newly listed in Harbor Pines between July and September 2026.

How to test it

  1. Give the fact sheet to a colleague. Ask them to reproduce one number from your MLS using only your boundary and period. They should get the same result.
  2. Check that no statement uses a percentage change on fewer than 10 sales.
  3. Search the sheet for words about residents (families, young, retirees, quiet neighbors). Remove any you find.

Troubleshooting

Your MLS has no statistics module.

Export the closed listings for the period and calculate counts and medians with MEDIAN() in a spreadsheet.

FHFA does not publish your ZIP.

Use the county or metro series and label it as such. Do not present a county figure as your neighborhood's.

Zero sales this quarter.

Say so. "No single-family homes closed in Harbor Pines between July and September" is useful news, and you can show active listings instead.

Advanced technical details

Optional. You can follow every step above without these.

Technical detailsMedians, samples and seasonality

The median of 9 sales can move tens of thousands of dollars because of one large or small home. A rolling 12-month median with the count beside it is steadier for small neighborhoods. Price per square foot reduces the mix effect but still swings with few sales. FHFA's index is a repeat-sales index, which controls for mix, but it is published at ZIP level only annually.

Sources

A method with illustrative numbers. Replace the examples with your own. Last checked 2026-10-20.